07/25 MLB Betting Preview: LA Dodgers vs NY Mets

MLB

Saturday, July 25, 2026 – 7:15 PM ET

Citi Field

Dodgers vs Mets

The Dodgers and Mets meet at Citi Field in a matchup that is not as simple as just backing the bigger name. Nolan McLean has been sharp recently for New York, and the Mets have been swinging it better over the last couple of weeks. That makes this a real matchup, but the full-game setup still points toward Los Angeles as the better side.

The Dodgers have the stronger season-long offense, and that matters in a spot where both starters can miss bats. Los Angeles enters with a .342 wOBA and 121 wRC+ on the season, compared to New York at a .306 wOBA and 97 wRC+. The Dodgers have also been better against right-handed pitching, sitting at a 125 wRC+ vs RHP, while the Mets are at 98 wRC+ vs RHP. That gives Los Angeles the more trustworthy offensive ceiling in a game where one crooked inning could be the difference.

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Matchup Breakdown:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto gives the Dodgers a strong starting point. On the season, he owns a 2.78 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 0.88 WHIP, 24.84% K rate, and only a 5.49% walk rate. He has also been excellent away from home with a 2.24 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 4.31% walk rate. Those command numbers are important because the Mets have been relying on traffic and on-base ability to create offense.

McLean is not a pitcher I want to fade blindly. He has a 3.34 ERA, 3.15 xERA, 1.09 WHIP, and a 28.78% K rate on the season. He has also been excellent over his last three starts with a 1.00 ERA, 2.82 xERA, and 30.56% K rate. The issue is that his home numbers are not as clean, with a 4.47 ERA, 3.86 xERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 10.30% walk rate at Citi Field, against a Dodgers lineup that can stack left-handed pressure, which creates a path for Los Angeles to make him work.

Betting Angles:

The Dodgers’ left-handed bats are a big part of this play. McLean has been softer against left-handed hitters, and Los Angeles can attack that split with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, Tommy Edman, and Dalton Rushing. Muncy and Edman stand out in the recent matchup data, with Muncy posting a .460 wOBA, .731 SLG, and 22.2% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances vs RHP, while Edman has a .471 wOBA, .655 SLG, and 13.0% barrel rate in that same split.

New York does have some dangerous bats, especially Francisco Lindor, who has been red hot with a .502 wOBA and .704 SLG over his last 30 plate appearances vs RHP. The concern for the Mets is Juan Soto’s status. Soto is one of their best on-base bats and a key left-handed piece against Yamamoto, but he left Friday’s game with left calf soreness. If he is out or limited, it takes away some of New York’s ability to match the Dodgers’ offensive ceiling.

The bullpen edge also leans slightly toward Los Angeles over the full season. The Dodgers’ bullpen owns a 3.46 xERA, 3.70 FIP, 25.40% K rate, and 1.01 HR/9, while the Mets’ bullpen sits at a 3.69 xERA, 3.98 FIP, 23.59% K rate, and 1.19 HR/9. It is not a massive gap, but when we are playing Dodgers -1 instead of just the moneyline, every late-inning edge matters.

Conclusion:

McLean’s recent form deserves respect, but this is still a good spot to back the better overall team. The Dodgers have the stronger season-long offense, the better numbers against right-handed pitching, a clean starting-pitching side with Yamamoto, and a lineup that can attack McLean’s left-handed split. Add in the uncertainty around Soto, and the Dodgers have enough edges to justify moving past the moneyline.

The -1 line is the right way to play it. It avoids laying a heavier moneyline, gives us a push if Los Angeles wins by exactly one, and still lets us back the better full-game side.

Pick:

🎯 Dodgers -1 (-135) 0.75u