5/16 NHL Betting Preview: Buffalo Sabres vs Montreal Canadiens

NHL

Saturday, May 16, 2026 – 8:10 PM ET

Bell Centre

Sabres vs Canadiens

The Sabres and Canadiens head back to Montreal for Game 6 with the series tilted toward the home side. Montreal grabbed a 3-2 series lead with a 6-3 win in Buffalo, using four unanswered goals and a strong close after the Sabres jumped out with multiple early leads. Jakub Dobes was busy in that game and still gave Montreal enough stability after the first period, finishing with 33 saves as the Canadiens moved within one win of the Eastern Conference Final.

That Game 5 result matters because it showed both sides of this matchup. Buffalo is dangerous enough to create early pressure and make Montreal uncomfortable, but the Sabres were not able to sustain control once the Canadiens settled into the game. Now the series shifts back to Bell Centre, where Montreal has the home crowd, the series lead, and a chance to close things out without needing to turn this into another loose, back-and-forth game.

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Matchup Breakdown:

The biggest piece of this matchup is game control. Buffalo is the desperate team, and the Sabres should come out with urgency because their season is on the line. The problem is that urgency does not automatically create clean offense, especially on the road against a Montreal team that should be focused on tightening the game early and protecting the middle of the ice.

Montreal’s path is pretty clear. The Canadiens do not need to chase offense recklessly or trade rush chances all night. They need to get the puck deep, make Buffalo defend, and avoid the kind of early mistakes that allowed the Sabres to build momentum in Game 5. If Montreal plays with better structure at home, Buffalo may still have dangerous stretches, but it becomes harder for the Sabres to stack long offensive-zone shifts and turn this into a high-shot game.

Buffalo still has enough skill to make this a real threat. The Sabres showed in Game 5 that they can score quickly and put Montreal under pressure when the game gets loose. The question is whether they can sustain that pressure for 60 minutes at Bell Centre. If Montreal controls more of the neutral zone and forces Buffalo into one-and-done possessions, this becomes a much more manageable workload for Dobes.

Betting Angles:

The best betting angle here is Jakub Dobes under 25.5 saves. This is not a bet against Dobes playing well. It is a bet that Buffalo does not generate enough full-game shot volume to force him into a heavy-save night. The recent shot profile supports that idea. Buffalo is sitting at only 26.2 shots on goal per game over the last five-game sample, while Montreal is allowing 26.2 shots against per game over that same stretch. That puts the expected shot environment right near the number, and saves require an extra step. Dobes can face 25 or 26 shots and still stay under if Buffalo scores a couple of goals.

That is why this number is vulnerable. For Dobes to clear 25.5 saves, Buffalo likely needs to push into the high-20s or low-30s in shots, or Montreal has to spend too much of the game defending. That can happen in an elimination spot, but it is not the cleanest expectation with the Canadiens at home and holding the series lead. The better script is Montreal settling in earlier than it did in Game 5, limiting extended defensive-zone shifts, and making Buffalo work from the outside. The Sabres can still create chances, but if the shot count stays in a normal road range, Dobes can have a solid performance without reaching 26 saves.

Conclusion:

The key is that Dobes does not need a quiet night for this play to cash. He just needs Buffalo’s shot volume to stay in check, and the matchup points toward that being the more realistic outcome. With Montreal’s home-ice edge, the series script, and Buffalo’s recent shot profile, the under is the cleanest prop angle on this slate.

Pick:

🎯 Jakub Dobes (MTL) Under 25.5 Saves (-113)

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