MNF Betting Preview: Eagles at Chargers

NFL

Monday, December 08, 2025 – 8:20 PM ET

SoFi Stadium

Chargers vs Eagles

This Monday night in Philadelphia features a key interconference matchup that could impact playoff standings, making it a must-watch for football fans and analysts alike. Los Angeles has won four of its last five games thanks to improved offensive efficiency and a healthier roster. At the same time, Philadelphia remains one of the NFC’s most physical teams despite recent inconsistencies. Both offenses rank inside the league’s top twelve in total yardage, and both quarterbacks bring elite vertical ability, making sustained drives, pressure response, and situational execution the deciding factors in a game with significant playoff implications.

Matchup Breakdown:

The Chargers’ offense has developed into a more stable, efficient unit as Justin Herbert enters Week 14 with 2,696 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and a 94.9 rating despite absorbing 40 sacks. Herbert's strong arm and aggressive downfield approach are key strengths, but protection issues remain a weakness. He ranks top-ten in air yards (3,134) and on-target percentage (76.4%), giving Los Angeles one of the league’s most aggressive downfield profiles. Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen anchor a passing game that combines separation with yards-after-catch production — the pair has 1,305 receiving yards and 70 first downs. Quentin Johnston continues to provide explosive-play capability with a 13.1 YPR and six receptions of 20+ yards. Against an Eagles defense allowing 2,771 passing yards, a 78.4 opponent passer rating, and 6.9 yards per target, the Chargers’ vertical structure aligns well with Philadelphia’s recent struggles defending intermediate and deep routes, exposing their coverage vulnerabilities.

The Eagles' offense still flows through Jalen Hurts, who has produced 826 rushing and scrimmage yards, 14 total touchdowns, and a 75.1% on-target rate while generating consistent drive efficiency. Philadelphia's offense averages 416 yards per game and scores 277 points, with a 48.3% third-down conversion rate, the second-best in the NFL. Their top-five offensive line supports Saquon Barkley's 999 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns, while A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have combined for 1,501 receiving yards and 65 first downs. The challenge lies in Philadelphia's defensive vulnerabilities: allowing 389 opponent plays of 5+ yards, 38 plays of 20+ yards, and struggling against quarterbacks who attack intermediate windows, an area Herbert excels in, which could be exploited in this matchup.

Betting Angles:

From a structural standpoint, this matchup points toward elevated quarterback passing volume. The Eagles allow 34.6 opponent plays per game through the air, rank in the bottom ten in pressure-to-hit conversion rate, and surrender 7.9 yards per attempt in zone coverage, a coverage family that Herbert excels against. Los Angeles enters with a top-six passing share, and Herbert’s weekly median (based on your projection file) sits at 235 passing yards, well above the posted number. His profile—high air-yard depth, strong YAC support, and heavy usage when trailing—matches up cleanly with an Eagles defense giving up 202 passing first downs and allowing opponents to sustain long, multi-play drives.

On the other side, Philadelphia’s offensive efficiency keeps the scoring pressure high. The Eagles average 23.1 points, 338 total yards, and drive opponents into pass-heavy scripts in the second half. That matters because Herbert’s pass rate spikes to 68% when trailing, and Philadelphia has held a halftime lead in eight of twelve games. With the Chargers ranking 7th in average drive length and 12th in explosive-pass rate, the data support above-baseline passing output in game states where Los Angeles is responding to Philadelphia’s scoring pace.

Conclusion:

Both teams bring high-end quarterback talent, but the matchup tilts toward Los Angeles, leaning heavily on Herbert’s arm. The Eagles’ defense has struggled against precise, high-volume passers, and Herbert enters with strong efficiency metrics, deep-ball production, and an offensive structure built to expose Philadelphia’s soft spots in coverage. With both offenses capable of sustaining drives and generating chunk gains, this matchup sets up as a game where Herbert’s passing opportunity and efficiency converge at the right time.

Pick:

🎯 Justin Herbert Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-120)