SNF Betting Preview: Broncos at Commanders

NFL

Sunday, November 30, 2025 – 8:20 PM ET

Northwest Stadium

Broncos vs Commanders

Sunday night in Landover features a matchup shaped by two teams moving in opposite directions, set against cold weather and a fading home crowd. Denver has transformed into one of the league’s most efficient, well-structured units — steady quarterback play, a top-tier scoring defense, and a run game that controls pace. Washington, meanwhile, enters with Marcus Mariota at quarterback and one of the league’s most vulnerable defensive profiles, making this environment ideal for a disciplined road favorite.

Matchup Breakdown:

Denver’s identity has solidified behind a disciplined, top-three scoring defense and an offense that wins through balance. Bo Nix continues to show poise in structure, posting an 18–8 TD-INT line, completing 61%, and benefiting from a rushing attack averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 11 rushing scores. Their drive data reinforces sustainability: Denver ranks in the top 10 in yards per drive, limits turnovers, and converts red-zone trips at nearly 60%. Against a Washington defense allowing 6.6 yards per play, 22 passing touchdowns, and owning the league’s worst explosive-play prevention metrics, Denver enters with multiple paths to consistent scoring.

Washington, meanwhile, has no stabilizing force. The defense has allowed 3016 passing yards, 22 touchdowns through the air, and has given up at least 28 points in seven of their last eight matchups. Offensively, the Commanders have struggled with inconsistent play, alternating between Daniels and Mariota behind a line that has posted a 17.7% pressure rate, resulting in stalled drives, turnovers, and minimal downfield production. Their red-zone touchdown rate (71.4%) seems strong, but their lack of sustained drives limits their scoring to just 16.4 points per game over the last month.

Betting Angles:

Denver’s higher probability to cover is supported by all model inputs — efficiency, form, drive quality, pace, and scoring. The Broncos cover their wins by an average of 8.8 points, highlighting their consistent dominance over weaker offenses. Washington has failed to cover six of its last seven games, with every loss by double digits, emphasizing their matchup disadvantages against Denver’s structured defense.

Washington can threaten occasionally with Deebo Samuel and Jaylin Lane, but the Broncos’ secondary — which ranks top-five in yards per target allowed and top-three in defensive EPA on passing downs — is built to limit exactly the type of perimeter-driven offense Washington relies on. Add in Washington’s severe regression on third downs (38.7% offense vs 41.7% allowed) and Denver’s red-zone edge, and the probability of this staying competitive drops significantly.

Conclusion:

With Washington turning to Marcus Mariota and losing the rhythm Jayden Daniels brought to their offense, the Commanders enter this matchup with a noticeably lower scoring ceiling. Denver, meanwhile, continues to win with a consistent defensive structure and a quarterback who rarely puts them in adverse situations. With the matchup forcing Washington into long drives and limiting their explosive options, this number falls directly into Denver’s favor. The Broncos control pace, field position, and efficiency — exactly the traits that support laying the points in this spot.

Pick:

🎯 Broncos -6.5 (-110)