SNF Betting Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs LA Rams

NFL

Sunday, November 23, 2025 – 8:20 PM ET

SoFi Stadium

Rams vs Buccaneers

Sunday night in Los Angeles brings a high-stakes NFC matchup between two teams on different trajectories. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight and now faces a Rams defense ranking in the top five in pressure rate and red-zone efficiency. Baker Mayfield has taken care of the ball — just three interceptions across 340 attempts — but the Bucs still lean heavily on explosive production from Emeka Egbuka, who leads the team with six touchdowns and accounts for the highest share of Tampa Bay’s receiving scores. With defensive injuries in the secondary and inconsistent run efficiency, Tampa enters a difficult position against one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses.

Matchup Breakdown:

Tampa Bay’s passing-centric identity meets a Rams defense that allows only 5.0 yards per play and excels at forcing third-and-long situations. The Bucs’ offense ranks top-10 in yards per completion but bottom-tier in rushing consistency, a concerning profile against a defense that tightens significantly inside the 30. Los Angeles is top-four in opponent red-zone scoring rate, creating a narrow scoring window for a Bucs unit converting just 51.7% of red-zone trips into touchdowns.

On the other side, Matthew Stafford draws a favorable matchup against a Tampa defense that has surrendered 358+, 379+, and 414 yards in three of the last four games. The Rams’ offensive line has kept Stafford’s sack rate below 4%. With Davante Adams and Puka Nacua consistently generating early separation, Los Angeles continues to produce explosive gains at one of the highest rates in the league. If the Rams build a lead, Stafford’s efficiency and vertical passing structure become even more challenging to counter.

Betting Angles:

The most substantial value play on the board is Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+170). Egbuka leads the Buccaneers in red-zone target share, explosive-play touchdowns (four of his six scores are from 20+ yards), and accounts for the highest percentage of Tampa Bay’s receiving TDs. He also runs over half his routes from the slot. In this exact area, the Rams have allowed their most efficient passing production this season. Our updated projection places Egbuka at 42% to score, which translates to an actual price of +138, giving us a +13.4% EV edge at the posted +170. Based strictly on usage and scoring concentration, Egbuka is one of the most likely touchdown scorers on the field for either team, especially given Tampa's reliance on him for explosive gains.

Los Angeles’ pressure profile also pushes the Bucs into a pass-heavy script. The Rams’ edge unit has been one of the league’s most disruptive over the last month. Increased pressure typically forces Mayfield into deeper drops and improvised throws — situations where Egbuka’s route versatility becomes even more valuable. While alternative considerations, such as Rams sack props or pressure-based derivatives, can serve as secondary angles, the most transparent and most efficient value remains Egbuka’s touchdown market.

Conclusion:

This matchup positions the Rams to dictate tempo and force Tampa Bay into aggressive passing scenarios. With defensive injuries mounting and Los Angeles excelling at pressure and coverage disguise, the Bucs’ clearest offensive counter remains Emeka Egbuka’s explosive usage and red-zone involvement. Supported by his league-relevant scoring share, deep-target role, and a 42% model-projected touchdown rate versus a +170 market price, the +13.4% EV makes Egbuka one of the most substantial primetime value plays on the slate — and one of the most likely scorers in this matchup.

Pick:

🎯 Emeka Egbuka Anytime Touchdown (+170)