Thursday Night Football Betting Preview

NFL

Thursday, September 25, 2025 – 8:15 PM ET

MetLife Stadium

New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles

Thursday night in Philadelphia brings a night of trench warfare and tempo control. The Eagles return home looking to rebound after their first loss. At the same time, the Giants arrive banged up and searching for rhythm under a patchwork offense. It’s a divisional matchup that leans more on execution than explosiveness—a chess match between sustained drives and situational defense.

Matchup Breakdown:

Philadelphia’s profile remains built on efficiency, not fireworks. They average 4.4 yards per play—bottom-five in the league—but offset it with elite red-zone precision (92.3% TD rate) and short-yardage consistency. Jalen Hurts has protected the football (7 TD, 0 INT) while converting over 40 % of first downs through the air. Even without LG Landon Dickerson, the Eagles’ interior run game still grades top-ten in short-yardage success, and Hurts’ QB power remains a stabilizer near the goal line.

The Giants counter with a defense that starts games respectably but fades as fatigue sets in. Through five weeks, they’ve allowed 13.6 first-half points per game—bottom-third in the league—and have conceded 13+ in four of five contests. Their pressure tandem of Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux can disrupt. Still, coverage depth is thin with multiple DBs nursing injuries. That combination—early disruption, shallow rotation—has made New York one of the more forgiving defenses in the first 30 minutes.

Betting Angles:

The number tells the story: Eagles 1H Team Total 12.5. Philadelphia averages 12.4 first-half points and has cleared 13 in three of five outings. Against a Giants defense that routinely gives up 13–14 early and sits 32nd in red-zone touchdown prevention, the matchup projects slightly better than neutral for Hurts and company.

All model projections point in the same direction. Between New York’s shaky coverage and Philadelphia’s red-zone precision, the Over 12.5 profiles as the right side. The Eagles have hit this mark in most spots where they control pace early, and Thursday’s setup fits that script again.

Pace also supports the look. The Eagles rank near the top of the league in early-down rush rate and drive time (2:47 per possession), meaning they sustain rather than stall. Sustained drives in the opening half generally translate to points even without chunk plays—an excellent fit for this total.

Conclusion:

Expect Philadelphia to stay methodical early, leaning on drive control and red-zone execution rather than tempo. This measured approach, which the Eagles have successfully implemented in the past, fits the first-half Over, where efficiency—not pace—drives the scoring edge. The full-game total may remain modest, but the first-half script favors production before adjustments and fatigue catch up.

This shapes up as a game defined by control and sequencing rather than volatility, which plays directly into the Eagles’ strengths within the first 30 minutes. With their methodical approach and efficient execution, the Eagles are well-positioned to capitalize on this game's dynamics.

Pick:

🎯 Eagles 1H Team Total Over 12.5 (–120)