Thursday Night NFL Football Preview

NFL

Thursday, September 25, 2025 – 8:15 PM ET

State Farm Stadium

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

The NFC West heats up on Thursday night as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Glendale to take on the Arizona Cardinals. On paper, this is a competitive matchup between two divisional rivals. Still, further investigation reveals a pair of clear betting opportunities. Our betting model, which considers player performance, team statistics, and historical data, highlights substantial value in two areas: backing the Seahawks to win outright and betting on Darnold to throw multiple touchdown passes.

Matchup Breakdown:

Seattle enters this game with a more balanced offensive attack than many expected. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has stepped into a proper WR1 role and has been commanding heavy target volume early in the season. Cooper Kupp, acquired in the offseason, adds a proven, reliable option who thrives on intermediate routes. Rookie Tory Horton and tight end AJ Barner give Darnold additional outlets, while Kenneth Walker anchors the ground game. This depth allows Seattle to attack defenses vertically and underneath, keeping defenses honest.

Arizona’s secondary, however, has struggled to contain opposing receivers. Injuries and inexperience have left the Cardinals vulnerable, particularly against top targets. They’ve allowed over 230 passing yards per game and are ranked near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt allowed. That creates an opening for Seattle’s wide receivers to dictate the flow of the game.

On offense, Arizona leans heavily on Kyler Murray’s mobility and rookie running back Trey Benson. With James Conner on injured reserve, Benson has taken over rushing duties. Still, he faces a stiff test against a Seattle front that ranks in the top ten in pressure rate and has shown discipline against the run. Murray’s ability to scramble for first downs keeps Arizona competitive. Still, the lack of consistent protection makes sustaining long drives difficult.

Betting Angles:

Projections make Seattle closer to a -200 favorite in this matchup. The current price of -125 significantly undervalues their advantages at wide receiver and on the defensive line. Seattle’s offense has the tools to stretch Arizona’s defense, and its front seven should be able to generate steady pressure on Murray. The significant discrepancy between the market and the model presents one of the strongest sides of the week, providing a confident betting opportunity.

While Darnold is not typically viewed as a high-ceiling passer, the circumstances here are ideal. Arizona has been particularly vulnerable in the red zone, allowing touchdowns to WR1 and TE targets at a high rate. With Smith-Njigba, Kupp, and Barner all seeing red-zone involvement, the opportunities are there for multiple scoring throws. Projections indicate that Darnold is more likely to throw two or more touchdowns than the market implies, with a fair price closer to -150 compared to the +165 currently available.

Conclusion:

This Thursday night game sets up as a showcase for Seattle’s emerging offense against a shaky Arizona defense. The Seahawks’ ability to create mismatches in the passing game pairs perfectly with Darnold’s touchdown prop, making these two plays both strong individually and well-correlated. If Seattle controls the game the way the model suggests, Darnold should be the one finishing drives through the air.

Picks:

✅ Seattle Seahawks ML (-125)

✅ Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+165)