TNF Betting Preview: Patriots vs Jets

NFL

Thursday, November 13, 2025 – 8:15 PM ET

Gillette Stadium

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Thursday night in Foxborough brings a divisional matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. New England, with an impressive 8–2 record, a testament to their consistent performance, continues to rise behind efficient quarterback play and a balanced offense. The Jets, coming off a win over Cleveland, remain volatile but dangerous when special teams and explosive plays swing their way.

Both teams have shown distinct identities this season — the Patriots through steady passing efficiency and strong situational defense, the Jets through flashes of big-play potential, often through long passes or quick, explosive runs, and a ground game centered on Breece Hall. The contrast sets up a matchup where, underneath, timing routes and tight-end involvement could quietly determine the flow.

Matchup Breakdown:

New England’s offense has been one of the more reliable units in the AFC, averaging 5.9 yards per play with Drake Maye distributing the ball efficiently to Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Hunter Henry. The running game adds stability with TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson combining for consistent early-down production. Defensively, the Patriots have allowed just 192 points, handling assignments well and forcing opponents into long-field drives, a testament to their strong defense.

The Jets sit at 2–7, still trying to find an offensive rhythm despite Justin Fields protecting the football and adding value with his mobility. New York averages 4.8 yards per play and leans heavily on Breece Hall for both explosive gains and sustaining drives. Defensively, the Jets generate pressure but struggle in tight spaces — opponents have scored touchdowns on nearly 74% of red-zone trips, with multiple tight ends finding success against their coverage this season.

Betting Angles:

New England’s passing structure matches up well against the Jets’ zone-heavy coverage tendencies. Drake Maye has consistently targeted the middle of the field, where Hunter Henry’s route tree thrives, and Henry has been involved every week with 47 targets across ten games. The Jets’ defensive issues inside the 20 further amplify this advantage, as tight ends have repeatedly capitalized on soft spots in their underneath zones.

The Jets’ offensive inconsistency creates additional pressure on their defense. Sustained drives have been difficult — New York ranks near the bottom in third-down efficiency — and when they fall behind the chains, their possession length drops sharply. This puts the Patriots in favorable field-position situations, allowing them to control tempo with their balanced attack.

The game flow leans heavily towards New England dictating the pace, forcing the Jets to respond through the air rather than relying exclusively on Breece Hall. This increases passing opportunities for Maye and creates the type of script where Henry’s involvement typically rises, especially on early-down throws and red-zone looks, a strategy that the Patriots are confident in executing.

Conclusion:

Both teams are familiar with each other, but the current versions of these rosters give New England a more straightforward path. The Patriots’ efficiency on early downs, clean passing structure, and strong defensive situational play match up favorably against a Jets team that has struggled to string together full-field drives. With New York vulnerable in the middle of the field and inside the red zone, the matchup leans directly toward Hunter Henry’s role.

Pick:

🎯 Hunter Henry Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-117)