Monday Night Football Preview

NFL

Monday, October 6, 2025 – 8:15 PM ET

EverBank Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Monday night in Jacksonville presents a fascinating clash of styles: Liam Coen’s motion-and-rhythm offense versus Steve Spagnuolo’s disguised looks that trend two-high but morph snap to snap. The strategic tape leans one way, while the statistical numbers tug in another direction. It’s a game that promises to keep you on the edge of your seat.

Matchup Breakdown:

Under Coen, Jacksonville has leaned into quick-game efficiency, motion, and tempo to sustain drives rather than chase explosives. Through four games, they’ve posted a 39.1% scoring-drive rate, gone 9-for-10 on fourth down, and converted 57.1% of red-zone trips into touchdowns. That profile pairs neatly with Kansas City’s coverage menu—Spagnuolo compresses vertical shots with two-high looks and mixes man behind disguise, which concedes space underneath and YAC if you’re patient.

Patrick Mahomes comes in efficient (7 TD, 1 INT) with his speed back outside, and against the single-high/Cover-3 looks Jacksonville leans on, Kansas City is more likely to win on seams and crossers than pure go balls. That style keeps drives on schedule and creates steady red-zone trips without turning it into a track meet. Special teams are basically even; if anything, Logan Cooke’s 42.5-net punting and Parker Washington’s return juice give Jacksonville a slight field-position bump—a small edge, but one that matters at the margins for team totals.

Betting Angles:

Even in a balanced script, Jacksonville’s money-down profile and red-zone efficiency push their scoring above a flat 20.5. The fourth-down aggression smooths variance that usually kills team-total overs, and KC’s shell invites the very kind of efficient, YAC-driven drives Jacksonville is building. This sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring game, with a projection of around 24 points for the Jaguars, and multiple paths (quick-game stacking, short fields, and fourth-down plays) to achieve this.

Etienne carries the primary red-zone share and offers an explosive path if Jacksonville pops one crease. KC’s structure is designed to limit deep shots; inside the 10, it concedes the occasional RB lane rather than giving up easy slants. Etienne benefits either way—sustained drives ending in carries or a single long run setting up a punch-in. The play also correlates with the team-total thesis: when Jacksonville reaches 21+, there’s a strong chance he has scored a touchdown, setting the stage for potential high-scoring excitement.

Conclusion:

This matchup is less about highlight plays and more about efficiency on the margins—drive starts, third-and-manageable, and low-red-zone sequencing. Jacksonville’s approach under Coen is built for that kind of game, and the Chiefs’ defensive DNA actually channels the ball where the Jaguars are most comfortable. This alignment creates two actionable edges without needing a shootout, emphasizing the strategic nature of the game.

Picks:

🎯 Jacksonville TT Over 20.5 (-120)

🎯 Travis Etienne Anytime Touch Down (+110)