TNF Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans

NFL

Thursday, November 20, 2025 – 8:15 PM ET

NRG Stadium

Texans vs Bills

Thursday night in Houston sets the stage for a crucial AFC matchup between the Texans and the Bills, two teams heading in opposite directions. Buffalo, after a mid-season dip, has found its footing, winning three of its last four games and averaging over 30 points per game. The foundation of their offense remains Josh Allen’s dual-threat production, with 10 rushing touchdowns and multiple explosive passing performances . On the other hand, Houston, with a 5–5 record, is undergoing a shift in offensive identity due to C.J. Stroud's concussion, placing the offense in the hands of Davis Mills. This change has led to a more conservative, efficiency-dependent approach.

Matchup Breakdown:

Buffalo’s offensive structure remains one of the most difficult in the league to defend. Allen has accounted for 20 total touchdowns through ten games. His pass-catchers have produced explosive moments, including Khalil Shakir’s 43 and 54-yard touchdown grabs, and Dalton Kincaid’s reliability in the red zone with four receiving scores. James Cook continues to be a consistent early-down engine, already producing 8 total touchdowns and multiple long runs that instantly tilt field position. Even without Curtis Samuel and Kincaid on a short week, the combination of Allen’s mobility, Cook’s efficiency, and Shakir/Coleman’s vertical ability keeps the Bills alive on every possession.

For Houston, the narrative changes significantly with Davis Mills back in the quarterback position. Mills has only one passing touchdown across 120 attempts this season, with a modest 82.2 passer rating and a lower yards-per-attempt profile than Stroud. His expected pass rate also decreases under pressure, which is a concern given Buffalo’s top-three defense in yards allowed, top-five in defensive EPA, and consistent pressure generation. Houston’s scoring has been inconsistent all year, with just 14 offensive touchdowns in 10 games , and a red-zone rate of 43%, one of the league’s lowest. With fewer explosive plays and more long-yardage situations under Mills, sustaining drives becomes significantly more difficult.

Betting Angles:

Buffalo’s defense is favored against Mills’ tendencies. Mills’ interception rate this season sits at 0.8%. Still, that number hides the context: he has thrown only 120 passes, and his turnover-worthy throw rate spikes when trailing — something Houston does often, having fallen behind in seven of ten games. Buffalo is top-five in opponent NY/A, top-three in defensive takeaways, and has allowed just 10 passing touchdowns all season while generating pressure with Hunter (9 sacks) and Anderson (8 sacks). Their defensive structure forces quarterbacks into tight-window throws, and Mills has historically struggled in those situations, completing only 60% of passes this season with limited mobility to escape pressure.

Buffalo ranks 3rd in the league in defensive interceptions. At the same time, Houston enters converting just 36% on third down — a number that drops further under Mills. Houston also ranks 28th in red-zone success, while Buffalo’s offense has forced opponents into chase mode in three of its last four wins. When Mills is forced off script, his efficiency declines, and his late-game decision-making becomes more aggressive, creating prime interception windows. Combine that with Buffalo’s secondary — which has produced multiple multi-interception games — and the matchup leans directly toward a turnover from the Houston quarterback.

Conclusion:

This primetime matchup pits Buffalo’s high-functioning offense and opportunistic defense against a Houston team adjusting back to Davis Mills at quarterback. With Houston likely to trail at some point and facing one of the league’s most disciplined secondaries, Mills enters a game script that increases pressure and elevates interception probability. The structural matchup — pressure rate, coverage success, game flow, and Mills’ own production profile — all point toward a turnover opportunity in a pivotal AFC battle.

Pick:

🎯 Davis Mills Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)