TNF Betting Preview: Raiders vs Broncos

NFL

Thursday, November 6, 2025 – 8:20 PM ET

Empower Field @ Mile High

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiderss

Thursday night in Denver features two AFC West rivals trending in opposite directions. The Broncos have surged to 7-2, thanks to improved offensive balance and a top-tier defense, while the Raiders are searching for stability following a narrow overtime loss to Jacksonville. Geno Smith continues to lead a competitive Las Vegas offense that’s flashed upside but lacks finishing consistency in the red zone.

Denver, meanwhile, looks to protect home field again, where they’ve held four straight opponents under 20 points. The question is whether the Raiders’ offense — now without Jakobi Meyers — can manufacture enough chunk plays to stay close against one of the league’s most efficient defensive fronts.

Matchup Breakdown:

Denver has quietly built one of the most balanced units in the AFC. Bo Nix owns a 17-to-6 TD-to-INT ratio, guiding an offense that averages 5.4 yards per play and ranks among the league’s top ten in rushing success rate. Running backs J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey have combined for more than 1,000 total yards and 10 touchdowns, giving the Broncos consistent production on early downs.

Defensively, the Broncos have been nothing short of elite. They rank first in third-down defense (28 %), first in red-zone TD rate (34 %), and fourth in points allowed (18 PPG). Edge rushers Jonathon Cooper and Nik Bonitto have totaled 15 sacks, while safeties Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Jones help stabilize coverage. The absence of Patrick Surtain II (pectoral) and Nate Adkins (knee) will test depth, but the scheme has remained airtight.

Las Vegas, meanwhile, shows glimpses but lacks rhythm. Geno Smith has completed 67.5 % of passes for 1,553 yards and 11 TDs, spreading targets between Brock Bowers (352 yards, 3 TD) and Tre Tucker (427 yards, 4 TD). Ashton Jeanty leads the backfield with 620 scrimmage yards and 6 scores. However, the Raiders rank just 29th in scoring and 30th in yards per play. Their defense, anchored by Maxx Crosby and Devin White, has generated 13 takeaways, often keeping games closer than expected despite offensive struggles.

Betting Angles:

Denver enters as a nine-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Projected outcomes point to an average score of Broncos 23 – Raiders 17, giving Las Vegas about a two-thirds chance to cover +10 (–125) and showing a solid value edge at the current number.

The matchup sets up for a slower, more methodical pace. Denver’s offense sustains drives efficiently but rarely hits quick-strike plays, while Las Vegas’s defense — allowing 5.2 yards per snap — tends to bend without breaking. Suppose the Raiders can continue generating takeaways and convert a couple of red-zone chances. In that case, they’re well-positioned to stay inside the number.

The projected total comes in near 41 points, suggesting mild value toward the under but stronger support on the Raiders side.

Conclusion:

Denver remains the superior team, and its deliberate pace, combined with recent defensive injuries, opens the door for a competitive game. Geno Smith’s timing with Bowers and Tucker should help sustain drives. The Broncos are expected to control most of the night, yet leave room for Las Vegas to hang around late and cover the number.

Pick:

🎯 Raiders +10 (-125