TNF Betting Preview: Rams at Seahawks

NFL

Thursday, December 18, 2025 – 8:20 PM ET

Lumen Field

Rams vs Seahawks

This Thursday night in Seattle features a divisional matchup between two teams trying to steady their playoff trajectory, each leaning heavily on their passing offenses to overcome recent inconsistencies. Los Angeles continues to operate through a timing-based system even without Davante Adams, while Seattle has shifted toward a more structured, efficiency-driven approach under Sam Darnold. With both teams relying on controlled passing to sustain drives, this primetime game shapes up as a battle of execution and rhythm.

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Matchup Breakdown:

Los Angeles enters the week still adjusting to life without Adams, but their offensive identity remains intact. Matthew Stafford has continued to deliver efficient production by distributing targets to Puka Nacua and the tight end group, allowing the Rams to maintain strong early-down passing efficiency. Their offense frequently forces opponents to match the pace, as Los Angeles ranks near the top of the league in sustaining drives through short and intermediate completions.

Seattle counters with an offense that has become increasingly reliant on the quick passing game. With inconsistent rushing production and an offensive line dealing with injuries, Sam Darnold has been tasked with operating a timing-based approach designed to limit negative plays and keep the offense on schedule. The structure suits him, particularly against a Rams defense that has recently allowed elevated completion rates and consistent intermediate gains. When these teams met earlier this season, the matchup favored Seattle’s short-passing success, and the same structural elements remain in place for Thursday night.

Betting Angles:

Seattle enters this matchup already leaning heavily on the passing game, and the numbers reinforce that trend. They have attempted 30 or more passes in five straight contests, with Darnold clearing the 20-completion mark in four of those five. Historical context supports the angle as well — Seattle quarterbacks have completed at least 20 passes in two of the last three meetings with Los Angeles, mainly due to how the Rams defend. Their scheme limits explosive plays but regularly allows short, rhythm-based throws.

That dynamic plays directly into Darnold’s strengths. Seattle’s offensive design emphasizes defined reads, quick-release concepts, and underneath spacing, all of which elevate completion totals even in neutral or run-leaning game scripts. Against a Rams offense that frequently forces opponents to sustain drives and a defense that funnels production into the short areas of the field, Darnold is positioned for another high-usage passing performance. Current projections indicate he will clear the 19.5 number at a strong rate, making it the most dependable angle on the board.

Conclusion:

Both offenses bring stability in the short passing game, but Seattle’s structure, recent usage trends, and matchup advantages make Darnold’s completions the most straightforward path to value. With sustained volume expected and the matchup pointing toward another efficient night underneath, this number sets up favorably for the over.

Pick:

🎯  Sam Darnold Over 19.5 Completions (-130)

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